Staring Outside The Windows

Feeling The Heat -The Canary is Dying

It’s like I told a former mid-cities friend who considered himself an experienced fly fisher (which he definitely was not), “You’re a frog in boiling water, and you don’t even know it. North Texas sucks. It’s done.” I said that in 2023.

That’s obviously my own opinion, but as I approach half a Century in Denton, Texas, it’s an “educated” opinion at the very least. And on a “micro” scale, you can’t find a place in this region that is much worse than the Dallas suburb of Denton, Texas.

Denton is a town, chewed thoroughly and swallowed up as a small city, and sh!$ out as a suburb of Dallas, Texas, right here right now, and it stinks just as much. To go anywhere, to do anything in this suburb? is to take your driving life into your own hands. And I am confident that is the reason I have Walmart drones flying their flight path – over my house – all day long. That and the fact school is back in session at nearby UNT, and it’s a bit more discreet to have condoms delivered than to go to (walking distance away) Walmart.

Let’s leave Denton’s problems aside though. We’re here to fly fish. That former friend? For multiple good reasons, picked up family and home and moved … to Brownsville, Texas. They are all very happy there after a couple of years – is what I hear. One more, “I told you so,” never hurts my ego.

How did North Texas start boiling its fly fishing frogs, like me? Slowly friends, slowly … at first. Well, the hot water came from lack of planning, a need for more water (for schmoes to water their grass), more vehicles running the same small roads and pumping out more pollution (one-person-one-dualie delivering one kid to elementary school waiting in a long line of one kid cars at dropoff), more pressure … in short more-more-more. Like any frog that gets boiled, it took a little time, but boiled fly fishing frog is du jour in 2026.

Heat, my fly fishing friends, heat is what I am talking about. And I am not talking about the daytime heat, that is nothing new – even though one or two degrees have been added to that average this summer. I AM TALKING ABOUT THE NIGHTTIME HEAT. We live in daylight, so obviously we pay more attention when the blazing sun hits our skin, but at night? we sleep, and our air conditioners run, run now … all night long … everyone’s AC’s run … all night long.

While I have made observations – ON FLY FISHING VIDEOS – about how much cooler it is just a few miles north of Denton, Texas, on Lake Ray Roberts? And those observations are facts, but the fact is “cooler” isn’t as cool as it once was.

So What!

What does any of this have to do with fly fishing success, MY local DFW fly fishing success? heck even local DFW bass pro success? My friends, I am actually talking about oxygen, oxygen in the waters we fly fish.

The bass pros and amateurs who read here will be familiar with the list of “reasons why” things have gotten so bad, not just here, but across the USA. See if this sounds familiar. It goes something like this:

• “The bass aren’t biting because the pressure changed.”
• “The shad moved.”
• “The lake is six feet low.”
• “Pressure!”
• “Forward Facing Sonar! Damn electronics! Bass feel the signals!”
• “The full moon. The new moon. Any moon!”
• “High school tournaments!”
• “All tournaments!”
• “Tournament mortality!”
• “It’s the floods.”
• “It’s the droughts.”
• “Fill In The Blank.”
  

I will give you multiple choices from above, for your big water, anywhere in the USA. But how often does anyone mention ambient air temperature? Feel Free to Think. Air, and air temperature is ubiquitous – it is on every single water body in the United States of America.

So what! What does that mean? It means the warmer the water, the less oxygen is present in that water. For me, this explains why there are so few carp on Ray Roberts flats – and in decline year-over-year, with a steep decline after COVID. Can I add a few excuses from that bulleted list? Yes, but why?

ON A NATIONAL LEVEL, a recent study printed in Nature Magazine stated that, “A major 2024 study modeled 12,688 U.S. lakes and examined thermal habitat for 60 fish species from 1980–2021.”

It goes on to say, “The researchers found that climate change is altering thermal habitat in American lakes and, importantly, that the losses experienced by cooler-water species are happening faster than gains experienced by warm-water species. They also found increasing thermal homogenization of the water column.”

Here is what research funded by Grant No. 20006684 from the U.S. Geological Survey South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center had to say in May 2026 released study of Lake Texoma. In this study:

Researchers studying Lake Texoma just published a 2026 study examining exactly this phenomenon in striped bass: a “temperature–oxygen squeeze.”

As summer progresses, warmer surface water and declining oxygen in deeper water can compress fish into a narrower band of usable habitat. The researchers found that suitable habitat varied substantially with summer conditions, water level and day-to-day persistence. (Wiley Online Library)

FEEL FREE TO click on that link above, and read this brand new study of Lake Texoma striper populations.

Three things can be true at the same time. Honestly, I saw a revival of the fishery at Lake Ray Roberts during COVID years. And the pressure was immense! Two, that means the canary lying in the bottom of the cage CAN come back to life. Three, all you big bass pros and others running down the road? it’s time to change your vehicles with those exploding American motors, and your huge mongo tow trucks, change your polluting footprint, lead by example – get lighter, get leaner get smarter about the BIG PICTURE. CAUTION: Leadership required! Many are called, few choose to lead.

END NOTE

Unlike we find on the moronic level at forums, like TexasFishingForum, I love debate that takes place right here – in the name of intelligent discourse, backed by FACTS and real true SCIENCE. If you are one to disagree here, you don’t start out by saying this environmental story is the beginning of transexuals in women’s sports and locker rooms, or that this story leads to the invasion of illegals from Mexico. That will get you nowhere, and it will never see the light of day – unlike what you see on the TexasFishingForum’s enshittification by proud boy posters there.

And, in case you are wondering? this is only the FIRST shot fired on this topic. There can be no one-and-done about the warming waters in the USA, and the future looking us in the face.